What to anticipate from Hungary’s presidency of the Council of the EU – Cyber Tech

Hungary took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union on 1 July. Zsuzsanna Végh and Sonja Priebus assess what the presidency may imply for the EU.

On 1 July, Hungary took over the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union for the second time since its accession to the EU 20 years in the past. Its first run in 2011 underneath the then-relatively new authorities of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was already not with out conflicts as the primary indicators of democratic backsliding appeared within the nation. Nonetheless, the presidency itself was carried out in an expert method.

13 years later and with a number of anti-EU billboard campaigns underneath its belt, the Orbán-government now takes the helm of the Council because the EU’s first electoral autocracy and with a repute as probably the most contentious EU member state. Issues are working excessive as as to if Hungary will act as an trustworthy dealer in advancing the EU’s agenda.

With a summer season break in sight and the institutional transition dominating the autumn, nonetheless, its room to affect policymaking can be restricted. The Hungarian presidency can be unable to paralyse the EU, however the tangible insecurities about its potential behaviour spotlight the extreme penalties that Euroscepticism and the inner authoritarian problem pose to the EU as a membership of democracies.

The highway to the EU presidency

Within the interval main as much as the presidency, the Hungarian authorities’s authoritarian monitor report sparked a debate over whether or not Hungary is suited to taking up the function. Consultants explored the opportunity of suspending or suspending the nation’s presidency, whereas the European Parliament adopted a five-party decision expressing doubts that Hungary might credibly fulfil its duties within the spirit of honest cooperation and requested the Council to strip Hungary of its proper to carry the presidency. With just a few exceptions like Germany, nonetheless, member states confirmed no political will to pursue this initiative and Hungary remained a part of the initially deliberate presidential trio with Spain and Belgium.

Preparation on the Hungarian aspect entered full swing with a authorities reshuffle in 2023: then-justice minister Judit Varga, who additionally oversaw EU affairs, resigned to steer Fidesz’s European parliamentary election record and marketing campaign. János Bóka, her former state secretary and an skilled EU professional, was nominated to steer a newly established ministry for EU affairs. Detaching it from the justice ministry, which had a conflict-ridden relationship with EU establishments over rule-of-law points, served to detoxify the EU portfolio and create an expert picture rooted in experience and expertise within the run-up to the presidency.

With presidency preparations decoupled from one among its hottest politicians, the governing occasion might have anticipated a easy European Parliament election marketing campaign with Varga within the lead. Nevertheless, an surprising scandal over a presidential pardon Varga had countersigned led not solely to her abrupt withdrawal from politics in early 2024 but in addition to the sudden rise of a brand new political pressure – led by her ex-husband Péter Magyar – that shortly grew to become Orbán’s major challenger.

Although Fidesz gained on 9 June with 44.8 per cent of the vote, it did so with its worst-ever end in a European Parliament election, regardless of the prime minister’s calls to “occupy Brussels”. The home problem was adopted by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s rejection of Fidesz as a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, leaving Orbán’s occasion seeking doubtlessly new, extra regional political options.

Priorities and realities of the EU presidency

Although the highway to Hungary’s EU presidency confronted extra obstacles than the federal government could have anticipated, its presidency motto set no lesser an intention than to “Make Europe Nice Once more!”, which is a transparent nod to former US President Donald Trump’s well-known MAGA slogan. Orbán is a staunch admirer of Trump and holds excessive hopes for his return to the White Home on this yr’s US presidential election.

On the identical time, the presidency motto can be a thinly veiled criticism of the outgoing European Fee and the European political mainstream. In Orbán’s view, their insurance policies have been an entire failure, critically weakening the European Union and perpetuating its a number of crises.

Consequently, the priorities of the presidency programme declare to supply “actual options to Europe’s actual issues” and search to deal with a mess of points, similar to European competitiveness, defence, enlargement, migration, cohesion and agricultural insurance policies, and demographic challenges – a number of of which additionally correspond to the problems on which the Hungarian authorities has usually formulated vocal criticism.

But, regardless of this bold agenda, the Hungarian presidency’s coverage affect can be constrained as a result of institutional transition following the June European Parliament elections. It won’t be earlier than late autumn that the parliamentary hearings of the brand new commissioner nominees designated by the member states can be accomplished and the brand new European Fee can begin its work. By the point all new establishments are absolutely operational, just a few weeks can be left to proceed with legislative work.

Furthermore, whereas the presidency prepares and chairs the varied Council formations and units the agenda for the conferences, the Overseas Affairs Council is chaired by the Excessive Consultant for Overseas Affairs and Safety Coverage. The truth that Hungarian overseas minister Péter Szijjártó, identified for his shut ties with Moscow, just isn’t going to chair these conferences means the Hungarian presidency has much less room to affect the overseas coverage agenda.

Worries have been nonetheless obvious even within the final push of the outgoing Belgian presidency and the EU establishments to launch accession talks with Moldova and Ukraine earlier than the beginning of the Hungarian presidency. But, in overseas coverage, it’s Hungary’s usually obstructionist stance associated to assist for Ukraine, and a harder stance towards Russia and China that poses obstacles. The presidency highlights this problem.

With little room for coverage work, the Hungarian presidency is anticipated to be a extremely political one. The Orbán-government will undoubtedly benefit from the chance to advertise its onerous Eurosceptic agenda and can use the platform of the presidency to construct political and mental alliances in favour of its imaginative and prescient of Europe.

In Orbán’s imaginative and prescient, the European Union must be decreased to an intergovernmental organisation, the place sovereignty stays completely with the member states. Direct elections to the European Parliament must be abolished and its members must be delegated by the nationwide legislatures as a substitute. As well as, the European Fee must be obliged to keep up political and ideological neutrality by way of the treaties. Although such reforms will naturally not be carried out inside six months, if advocated for by the federal government answerable for the EU’s rotating presidency, such calls could weaken the Union’s credibility as a powerful and united actor.

It’s unlikely that the Hungarian authorities will quit its confrontational stance through the presidency. Quite the opposite, we are able to count on additional radicalisation as Eurosceptic and intolerant forces acquire floor within the EU. With the upcoming risk of such events getting into nationwide governments in international locations like Austria, Czechia, and even France, requires radical reforms of the EU could turn out to be louder and Orbán’s authorities could really feel empowered.

Though Eurosceptic governments have already been on the helm of the rotating presidency up to now, the truth that this time the presidency is crammed by the federal government of the EU’s first non-democratic member state lends the dialogue about the way forward for the EU a brand new dimension.

Observe: This text offers the views of the authors, not the place of EUROPP – European Politics and Coverage or the London College of Economics. Featured picture credit score: European Union