Iran’s hardliners are buying and selling recriminations over their loss in final week’s presidential election after hundreds of thousands of their supporters shifted their votes to the reformist president-elect.
Acrimony has elevated between backers of the 2 hardline contenders, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament, and the extra radical Saeed Jalili, each of whom declined to give up the race to unite behind a single hardline candidate, as in earlier Iranian votes.
The hardline grouping is made up of social conservatives against a rapprochement with the US. Ghalibaf had been seen because the regime’s most popular option to win the tightly managed ballot, however a shock resolution to permit reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to run culminated in his victory.
Ghalibaf’s allies this week accused Jalili of exaggerating his recognition and his declare to have complete plans for presidency.
Mohammad Mohajeri, a conservative journalist, wrote on X: “Simply as he had the delusion of changing into president, Jalili additionally has the delusion that he has a plan to run the nation inside his [so-called] shadow authorities.”
Jalili’s supporters have in flip hit out at Ghalibaf. Hamid Rasaee, an MP who backed Jalili, stated: “The perfect response to Ghalibaf is his fourth place within the parliamentary election [for the Tehran constituency in March], in a metropolis the place he served as mayor for 12 years.”
The hardliners will wrestle to reunite beneath one umbrella as they lack robust political leaders, with senior people tending to behave on their very own perceived non secular duties. The ability wrestle is predicted to persist, particularly in parliament.
Supporters of Jalili have revived accusations that some associates of Ghalibaf have been corrupt. They’ve additionally criticised these perceived to be dwelling an expensive way of life far indifferent from the beliefs of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Vahid Ashtari, a person near hardliners, was arrested throughout the marketing campaign after posting a picture of a airplane ticket purporting to indicate that Ghalibaf’s daughter introduced virtually 300kg of bags again from a procuring journey in Turkey — a declare she and the household have denied.
Hamid-Reza Taraghi, a hardline politician, instructed the Monetary Occasions: “This election was a jolt for them [hardliners] who at the moment are blaming one another. They’re all responsible.”
He stated the hardliners had “misplaced as a consequence of their very own errors”, together with coverage failures corresponding to their lack of ability to rein in inflation of about 40 per cent, in addition to strategic issues corresponding to opting to not promote youthful candidates or discover contemporary marketing campaign strains.
Regardless of their robust backing from the Supreme Chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his main arm of energy, the Revolutionary Guards, analysts say hardliners’ mishandling of the financial system throughout the presidency of conservative Ebrahim Raisi — who died in a helicopter crash in Might — fuelled public discontent and prompted the regime to alter course. Energy struggles within the hardline camp have been one other issue.
Since 2020, hardliners had grown accustomed to largely competing solely with one another in nationwide votes, because the authorities blocked senior reformists. However when Pezeshkian was permitted to run, Iranian analysts and politicians noticed that as a tacit endorsement from Khamenei.
Taraghi stated: “The supreme chief selected a tactic which can also be strategic to steer the nation by means of the present issues and make the system extra environment friendly and versatile.”
At a time when highly effective hardliners dominated all branches of the state, the victory of 69-year-old Pezeshkian in Friday’s run-off delivered a major setback to their camp, which had believed it may garner an identical degree of votes to the 18mn that introduced Raisi to energy in 2021.
Jalili, nevertheless, gained simply 13.5mn votes within the run-off and Ghalibaf 3.4mn. Iranian analysts consider many conservatives who beforehand supported Raisi this time voted for Pezeshkian, who secured 16.3mn votes, as hardliners misplaced favour even with their conventional base.
Low turnouts have historically favoured hardliners, however Pezeshkian bucked that pattern when he gained in a run-off with turnout of 49.8 per cent, one of many lowest within the Islamic Republic’s historical past.
Pezeshkian, a regime loyalist who spoke of his religion and obedience to Khamenei within the marketing campaign, needs to marginalise radical forces from each hardline and reformist camps whereas creating a way of unity within the centre. In televised debates he stated he had recruited conservatives, together with individuals linked with Ghalibaf and the late Raisi, to work on his marketing campaign.
However there are issues in pro-reform circles that hardliners will search to undermine any reformist agenda.
Hardliners management parliament and the judiciary and likewise dominate the Revolutionary Guards and the workplace of the supreme chief, which determines essential home and overseas insurance policies.
The imprisonment on Saturday on current expenses of Mohsen Borhani, a lawyer and rights activist, was seen by reformists as a warning from hardliners within the judiciary that they’d have restricted choices for altering the nation’s route.
Pezeshkian has vowed to safe reduction from US sanctions by resolving the nuclear stand-off with the west. He has additionally promised to ease restrictions on social media and finish patrols by the morality police, who implement hijab guidelines for ladies.
Hardliners argue Pezeshkian can’t change big-picture insurance policies formed by the supreme chief and the Revolutionary Guards, together with enmity to the US and Israel and backing regional militias.
“Regardless of who’s the president, the coverage towards the US can’t change so long as there may be this degree of hostility from the US towards Iran,” stated Foad Izadi, an affiliate professor for American research at Tehran college, who’s near the hardliners.
There are additionally issues about Iran’s nuclear programme and army co-operation with Russia. Pezeshkian has pledged to observe Khamenei’s pointers in these areas, in a bid to minimise hardliners’ assaults on his authorities.
Reformists cautioned that if the stress from hardliners on Pezeshkian narrows the potential for change, social unrest may end result.
Mohammad Fazeli, a sociologist, stated individuals voted reluctantly and with out a lot hope. Now, he added, “in the event that they see the ruling system repeating its previous techniques [of sabotaging reform], I consider the potential for peaceable political engagement in Iran will finish”.
