Do we’ve got excellent market data? – Cyber Tech

I’ve thought for years that we’re shifting in the direction of excellent market data, the place demand and provide data turns into equal to all patrons and sellers. Now that we’ve got OpenAI and Gemini, are we getting there?

In the course of the Nineties, I spent a variety of time discussing neural networking the place we may pair shares to purchase and promote. Thirty years later, we will do excess of this. We moved from paired shares to algorithmic buying and selling to flash markets to markets that rise and fall with out the contact of a mouse. It’s all automated.

We moved from markets that had been run by computer systems to markets which might be run by computer systems. I had this previous joke that the world can be run by one man and his canine. The canine was there to cease the person touching the computer systems … the person was there to feed the canine. Are we there but? I believe we’re.

This then results in an uncomfortable query: if markets are run by programs, is that acceptable?

If we delegate the commerce of the world to algorithms, what’s our function? If we not run the programs, can the programs run themselves?

Hmmm …

The actual situation on the coronary heart of that debate, in a monetary context, is that we’ve got reached excellent market data. Those that are shopping for know simply as a lot as those that are promoting and, not simply that, however the entire market is aware of. There’s no leverage. Is that this the place we’re?

Some would say no, some would say sure, however I’m within the house that claims it’s attainable, however not actual.

Firstly, we must assume that each one shares, services and products had been fungible – like-for-like or equitable. They aren’t.

Secondly, we must assume that AI, algorithms and associated applied sciences may predict the motion of the markets. They can’t.

In fact they will make forecasts, however a forecast will not be agency. It’s only a forecast. It isn’t agency, and not one of the world is agency. Simply have a look at Ukraine and Israel.

So, the reply is that programs, AI, networks and the world we reside in at the moment can spend money on markets with imperfect data, simply as they at all times did. The largest distinction now’s that it’s real-time. There are not any laggards.

I suppose that is the place excellent market data exists.

You may programme the whole lot, automate the whole lot, join the whole lot … however there may be nonetheless an area for a human interruption. In different phrases, we’ve got the whole lot organised on the community with what seems to be excellent data, however somebody is at all times going to interrupt the community.

Good markets? Imperfect people. It’s at all times been this manner.