In China, as in lots of different nations, slimness is an oft-promoted magnificence normal. However the precise statistics within the nation, with greater than half the inhabitants labeled as chubby, inform a special story. That is excellent news for Novo Nordisk’s weight problems drug Wegovy.
Wegovy, which comprises the lively ingredient semaglutide, has been permitted in China for long-term weight administration for chubby and overweight folks. The Danish drugmaker has little competitors and big demand it may make the most of.
The provision of medicine containing semaglutide has been extremely managed and restricted in mainland China as, till now, they had been permitted just for the remedy of sort 2 diabetes. Even so, the market was valued at about $1.7bn final 12 months, in accordance with analytics group Clarivate. A extreme scarcity within the nation has resulted within the medicine buying and selling at nicely over double their prescription worth on the black market.
There are simply two native medicine which have already been permitted for weight reduction — Huadong Drugs’s liraglutide and Benamae Pharma’s beinaglutide. There’s a sturdy pipeline of native rivals which can be of their ultimate phases of scientific trials. However they’ll have a troublesome time commercialising the medicine within the quick time period because of Novo’s patent on semaglutide that runs by way of 2026. Shares in Huadong, down 30 per cent prior to now 12 months, mirror buyers’ pessimism on the native sector regardless of promising developments.
Which may be too harsh — no less than contemplating their long-term prospects. Demand for weight reduction medicine is about to develop at unprecedented ranges. In China, the variety of adults chubby is anticipated to triple, with the variety of folks labeled as overweight projected to extend greater than sevenfold by 2030 from 2000 ranges, in accordance with Chinese language public well being analysis.
There’s even greater potential for export. India has the third-largest variety of folks dwelling with weight problems, behind China and the US. Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic, plus Eli Lilly’s rival product, will not be accessible in India. There aren’t any plans within the close to future to produce the nation because of international shortages. Ozempic is designed for sort 2 diabetes however is usually used off-label for weight reduction functions. Greater than a tenth of the Indian inhabitants is estimated to be dwelling with diabetes. That ought to give Chinese language weight reduction drugmakers room for progress in the long term.
Within the meantime, Novo stands to achieve an distinctive windfall in one of many greatest markets on the earth.
june.yoon@ft.com
